Olivier Awards 2026: The Red Bus Londinium Predictions

In a year rich in theatrical triumph, here are my predictions for which shows might get the nod from the judges.

Best New Play

Prediction: Punch by James Graham (Young Vic and Apollo Theatre)

Rationale: James Graham remains a vital voice in British theatre, turning a difficult true story into an insightful lesson on empathy. It is exactly the kind of theatre that teaches the audience about others’ lives while remaining utterly compelling.

Best New Musical

Prediction: Paddington the Musical (Savoy Theatre)

Rationale: A triumph of warmth and accessibility, this production brought a sense of joy back to the West End. It reflects the belief that theatre should be a pleasurable experience for all, regardless of background.

Best Revival

Prediction: Much Ado About Nothing (Theatre Royal Drury Lane)

Rationale: This production was a breath of fresh air, proving that Shakespeare’s history can be presented with a modern spirit without losing its classic heart. It was a fair and joyful celebration of human connection.

Best Musical Revival

Prediction: Evita (The London Palladium)

Rationale: The decision to bring the production into the public space of Soho made this a true city-wide event. It was a bold reimagining that respected the original material while making it feel urgently contemporary.

Noël Coward Award for Best New Entertainment or Comedy Play

Prediction: Every Brilliant Thing (@sohoplace)

Rationale: This play is a masterclass in accessibility and audience connection. It handles difficult subject matter with such kindness that it becomes a profoundly hopeful lesson for everyone in the room.

Best Actor

Prediction: Bryan Cranston for All My Sons (Wyndham’s Theatre)

Rationale: Cranston provided a measured and devastating performance as Joe Keller. The characters in Arthur Miller’s tragedies are portrayed as real individuals caught in the machinery of an unforgiving system.

Best Actress

Prediction: Rosamund Pike for Inter Alia (National Theatre)

Rationale: Pike’s performance was educated and controlled, navigating the complexities of the script with a precision that left the audience reflecting on the nature of law and morality.

Best Actor in a Musical

Prediction: James Hameed / Arti Shah for Paddington the Musical (Savoy Theatre)

Rationale: A wonderful acknowledgement of the collaboration required in modern theatre. This joint nomination represents the fusion of puppetry and performance that made the central character feel like a tangible, living bear with a real heart.

Best Actress in a Musical

Prediction: Rachel Zegler for Evita (The London Palladium)

Rationale: Zegler was the sensation of the summer, bringing a raw power to the role of Eva Perón. The performance was inclusive and electrifying, bridging the gap between the stage and the street.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: Paapa Essiedu for All My Sons (Wyndham’s Theatre)

Rationale: Essiedu brought a grounded, sympathetic quality to the role of Chris, providing the moral compass for the play. The work respected the weight of the historical context.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Julie Hesmondhalgh for Punch (Young Vic and Apollo Theatre)

Rationale: Hesmondhalgh has a unique ability to portray the “everywoman” with extraordinary depth. The performance was a lesson in quiet resilience and empathy.

Best Supporting Actor in a Musical

Prediction: Tom Edden for Paddington the Musical (Savoy Theatre)

Rationale: Edden’s performance was a highlight of the “pleasurable” side of the West End, bringing a seasoned professional’s touch to a role that brought a smile to every face.

Best Supporting Actress in a Musical

Prediction: Victoria Hamilton-Barritt for Paddington the Musical (Savoy Theatre)

Rationale: Hamilton-Barritt is an incredible talent who brings a sharp, measured wit to every role. The work was a masterclass in stylised, sophisticated performance.

Sir Peter Hall Award for Best Director

Prediction: Luke Sheppard for Paddington the Musical (Savoy Theatre)

Rationale: Sheppard managed to coordinate a massive technical team to produce something that felt intimate and personal. The direction made a large-scale musical feel accessible and warm.

Outstanding Achievement in Affiliate Theatre

Prediction: Miss Myrtle’s Garden (Bush Theatre)

Rationale: This production is a perfect example of theatre reflecting voices that are often underrepresented. It provided an insightful and moving window into Miss Myrtle’s community.

Best New Opera Production

Prediction: Dead Man Walking (English National Opera at London Coliseum)

Rationale: This production was a powerful lesson in human rights and the weight of the past. It managed to handle a very difficult subject in an insightful way that stayed with the audience long after the final curtain.

Best New Dance Production: Into the Hairy by Sharon Eyal (S-E-D at Sadler’s Wells)

Rationale: Eyal’s distinct, pulsing style creates a visceral experience that pushes the boundaries of contemporary movement.

Best Set Design

Prediction: Tom Pye and Ash J Woodward for Paddington the Musical (Savoy Theatre)

Rationale: The design was an imaginative love letter to London, creating a world that was both massive and magical. It provided the perfect backdrop for a story about finding one’s place in the city.

White Light Award for Best Lighting Design

Prediction: Jon Clark for Evita (The London Palladium)

Rationale: Clark’s lighting was essential in creating the stadium-like atmosphere required for this revival. It was bold and informative, guiding the audience through the emotional highs and lows.

Best Costume Design

Prediction: Tom Scutt for Into the Woods (Bridge Theatre)

Rationale: Scutt’s designs were textured and grounded, helping the audience to see these familiar fairy-tale figures as real people with their own histories.

Best Sound Design

Prediction: Giles Thomas for Kenrex (The Other Palace)

Rationale: The soundscape for Kenrex was visceral and immersive, using audio to build a sense of tension and location that was vital for such an intimate venue.

Outstanding Musical Contribution

Prediction: Chris Fenwick and Sean Hayes for Good Night, Oscar (The Barbican)

Rationale: The live piano performance was not just a technical feat but an insightful part of the storytelling, teaching the audience about the character’s internal struggle through music.

Gillian Lynne Award for Best Theatre Choreographer

Prediction: Fabian Aloise for Evita (The London Palladium)

Rationale: Aloise’s choreography was visceral and energetic. It captured the pulse of a nation in revolt and was a key factor in making this revival a standout success.

NOTE: The ceremony has now passed, so you can see how well I got on with my predictions here.

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